The NEW new economy

As I surf to my various favorite websites, I've noticed two things:

Either:

A) They (the websites) are trying various new ways to make money (paypal, selling mugs, hats, etc.).

or

B) They're run by old "new economy" companies that are slowly going under (or fast in VA Linux's case).

Banner ads now bring in about $.15 per CPM for most sites. And it costs about a megabit of bandwidth to get a million page views. A megabit costs around $500 to $1000. So you can make $150 in banner revenue for ever $500 to $1000 you spend on bandwidth. So clearly that's not a good scenario.

So what's going to happen?

Some say that the net will go back to the hobbiests. But that really isn't possible. The problem is BANDWIDTH and then the admin costs. Joe hobbiest's website won't be able to handle 1 million page views because of the bandwidth costs.

Others say that bandwidth costs will go down. But the problem with that is that many of these companies that created all this piping did so thinking that new economy was going to keep going. Even at $500 to $1000 per megabit, they're losing massive amount. Anyone see the report on how much money Northern Telecom lost last quarter? Or that AT&T is considering letting @Home file for bankruptcy? It's a catch-22 for them.

So what's going to happen? Any predictions?
12,328 views 26 replies
Reply #1 Top
I predict a spell-check...'hobbyist'....Spell checker
Reply #2 Top
That's it:

OBEY: http://www.hypnotoad.org
Reply #3 Top
yikes! that's a scary link!

why do I have this sudden urge to buy more copies of the WC CD?

Obviously there's a need for a reliable revenue model that all websites can benefit from. There is something on the (near) horizon that will address this with an elegant and practical solution.
Reply #4 Top
Hynotoad makes baby Jesus cry. I wrote a huge diatribe on this matter on the newsgroups a couple of weeks ago, and now for your reading pleasure, I'm going to invoke the magic of copy and paste (I may try to edit it down a little, it was rather large), brace yourself:

As the vast majority of us know by now, a huge number of web based
businesses are failing. I'm sure that in the course of the last year, we've
all had a site we know disappear from the face of the world, from the eFront
fiasco to Disney's go.com. Also, I'm sure that we're all aware that the
reason for the disappearance of these sites is the failed internet
advertising model.

If you ask me though, the companies that have relied on advertising revenue
have been doomed from day one, and to try and run a business based on such a
thing, while lucrative for a short while, was never a good long term
investment. Why? Because the whole advertising model for the internet was
ludicrous. The list of terribly bad banners goes on for a very long time,
banners that try to induce epileptic fits the get a click by strobing garish
colours at you, to empty promises of what you *will* win if you click. The
fact of the matter is, that even the slowest of users will learn after a
while that trying to press the "X" to close the annoying flashing banner
will not have the desired effect, and as it turns out, you really don't win
$20 if you spank the monkey. After the inevitable failiure of such cheap
tactics, advertisers got more and more aggressive, insisting that sites pop
up larger advertisements, bombarding users with a deluge of high bandwidth
imagery and new browser windows that they are induced to frantically close
before they spawn another one.

What everyone seemed to have overlooked in this, is that it doesn't matter
how obvious or annoying a banner is, if you're not the sort of person who
likes to play in a different online casino every day, and let's face it,
most of us aren't, and you're smart enough to figure out that banners are
full of lies and false promises, sooner or later it drives a person to the
point where they will glady pay for a piece of software to save their eyes
and their bandwidth from these monsterous creations.

I have to wonder, who thought for a single second that these tactics might
have worked? Why is it such a departure from existing advertising methods?

If you look at established advertising methods, they are designed to invoke
interest and product awareness. At the moment, the internet is closer to a
magazine format, slowly moving towards more of an interactive television
style. Pick up a copy of a magazine, it won't take you long to find an
advertisement, does it make you want to vomit when you look at it? Is it an
advert for something that the entire readership of the magazine would never
for a second be interested in purchasing? Chances are, it's a visually
pleasing advertisement for a product that may interest the sort of person
that would read that magazine. The only magazines that I read these days are
publications such as Maxim, the adverts in there are for things like nice
clothes, cologne, beer, things that would interest your average reader of
said publication. They are visually pleasing for the most part, and I often
find myself looking at the ad because I feel that if nothing else, it's
extremely well done.

Television advertising is easier than magazine advertizing, you have the
benefit of motion and sound to show your product, so often far less artistic
merit is involved. The typical television ad is placed in a timeslot where
it will hit as much of its target demographic as possible, and are usually
either constructed to entertain, or to inform and raise awareness of the
product. Again, no flashing lights that might inspire you to throw the
nearest heavy object through the screen, in turn forcing you to find
alternative means of entertainment, and go and buy the product in question.
Another popular method of television advertising is sponsorship, this show
brought to you by product X etc, which again, has proven effective.

The existing methods of advertising are tried, tested, and above all, for
the most part extremely effective. What could make somebody think for a
second that the current internet advertising model could hope to produce
results, why take that approach when there are such tried and tested methods
already out there. I'll tell you why, because they don't care. I've worked
with a number of .coms, and the attitude is amazing. You wouldn't believe
how many times I've heard such wonders as, "Well, we're providing this for
free, so if we get a million pageviews per month, and only one percent of
those actually clicks on the banner, we'll be making $7bn/month in no
time.". This is an amazing and unbelievably common attitude. What these
people failed to see is that if it's not something that people want, or not
presented in a good way, nobody will click on it, that's zero percent of
your million pageviews a month to any .com entrepreneurs out there.

Of course, it's all come to a head now, and many people who deserve to are
going out of business for it, and taking many people with them who don't
deserve this.

There is a point to all of this though. This need never have happened if
people had done things the right way from the start. Sponsorship of sites
from companies will raise awareness of the sponsor, clever and classy still
advertisements, as well as video will generate interest and thus sales. Of
course, this isn't going to be cheap, but then, why did you think that you
could be cheap with the users of the internet in the first place? Are they
less discerning than the demographics of more traditional forms of media? Do
you think that it's worth spending millions on an advertisement for
television, and then having some second rate graphic designer throw together
a 468x60 for the internet? Advertising must integrate smoothly into the
existing content of the internet. It must be produced with style and class,
and above all, for God's sake, please think it through before you try
anything as stupid as the group of morons that started the current internet
advertising model.
Reply #6 Top
/me 's trigger finger hovers nervously over the little delete button....'Damn these cheats who copy and past when I can only type 20 wpm....Grrrrr'....
Reply #7 Top
Anyway, marketeers aren't known for their cognitive capabilities anyway. And regarding advertising in other media, I don't notice it. In the newspaper, the adds are usually on the left page. Result? I don't look at the left page. Regarding tv, there's this thing called zapping. I never watch commercials.
Now what will happen is that all the new economy "funded" monster sites will come crashing down. That doesn't mean you will suddenly have to pay for everything though.

/me anxiously awaits the demise of ICQ and HotMail...
Reply #8 Top
Some say that the net will go back to the hobbiests.
So what's going to happen? Any predictions?
by Citizen Draginol - 8/27/2001 11:24:54 PM

not that many ppl that do have it as a hobby know how to get it up (time/skills to maintain their own lil sites etc)
nor do they get the hobby w/o first finding out about these things that they learn from the Bigger Sites that are falling.

so my prediction is.........

more ppl will flock to the beaches and zoos! hehe

net will be dominated by commercials & money making garbage.
(w/ a few cute sites around)
Reply #9 Top
Doreen: "net will be dominated by commercials & money making garbage.
(w/ a few cute sites around)"

You mean like it is now?
Reply #10 Top
hehe no way! it's gonna get worser paxxy!
pay per view computer movies only avail on machines with only "Computer movie stars" that are exclusive to computer air time... hehe

I dunno I can't imagine really but it will change cuz of money watch...

Reply #11 Top
'worser', Doreen?....Spell checker
Reply #12 Top
whoops don't know where that word came from =/
maybe from "Doreen's NewWorld Dictionary No College Edition"

hehe
Reply #13 Top
Great post AJ! WOuld you mind if I turned it into a regular article and published it on the main website in the articles section?
Reply #14 Top
Thanks Frogboy, just in case you didn't get my message earlier, it would surely make me happy to have that added to the articles section, but would you mind if I just proof read it first to remove a couple of typos/grammatical errors etc.
Reply #15 Top
not that many ppl that do have it as a hobby know how to get it up (time/skills to maintain their own lil sites etc)
nor do they get the hobby w/o first finding out about these things that they learn from the Bigger Sites that are falling.

so my prediction is.........

more ppl will flock to the beaches and zoos! hehe

net will be dominated by commercials & money making garbage.
(w/ a few cute sites around)
by Citizen Doreen - 8/28/2001 9:32:24 AM

I have been seeing alot of articles and posts all over the place and finally realized exactly what this reminds me of. I was into BBSing for 10 years or so, up until '97, when I finally took mine down. There is a big difference between then and now, however. At that point, people were drifting away from boards, and onto the net.
The main premise, or similarity that I see is that something evolved out of it, and will continue to do so.
Guess I just realized that I don't have much of a point. Am I the only person that can see how closely the two are related? Perhaps someone else can state it better than I.
Reply #16 Top
But isn't it so that with BBS's, something better came along? Where's the better alternative here?
Reply #17 Top
AJ, sure. If you want to email me the article when you're done (or attach it as a word doc) i'll turn it into a web page and put it up.
Reply #18 Top
The unfortunate part of internet advertising lessons being learned is that the advertising models developed on the net are going to become more pervasive in every day life. Soon you will see banner-like advertisements on everything around you. TV shows will place direct promotional statements right into the context of the story so you can't mute or change channels to escape them. Flashing and motion will be worked into previously static media like metro buses, billboards, etc.

Already schools are allowed to have corporate sponsors that can paint their name in huge letters on the roof of the school & provide textbooks in which they are allowed to alter the lessons to promote their product. For example, oil companies have provided textbooks to schools in Texas that teach that air pollution is a false concept and the effect comes from a natural 'haze', carbon dioxide is actually good for the atmosphere and the more gasoline that's burned the healthier our skies become... and so on.

These days the 'content' of anything (news, programs, products, food, textbooks) is secondary to the Branding process. For example, CNN news doesn't build their news broadcast to inform you, it's specifically structured to leave only one thing in your mind..."CNN". Advertisers charge millions to target your products at 4-10 year olds with subtle research-supplied tricks that will make your brand a 'familiar' name to them as they grow up into money making consumers. Every brand wants to be one of those comfortable childhood memories because that's where the big money is.

The net is just another fertile ground to be plowed under and co-opted into the branding process....
Reply #19 Top
DavidK, I could not agree with you more. Corporate sponsorship of educational events, including and especially collegiate sports, and commercial news shows are the surest signs of the decline of civilization. You are right, although it never occured to me before, that the low brow advertising that has been the bane of the Internet is being ported everywhere. As though anyone needed to further dumb done television and print advertising.
The Internet originally florished because it provided things of value. It was content rich. If advertisers provide ads that are interesting without being offensive, are consistent with the content of the web sites which display them and provide some value, they will generate wealth. Let me give an example. I have used auto sites to help me buy a car. They provide a valuable service to me. I would at least be willing to check out an auto insurance company that advertised on one of those sites. If the insurance provided what I perceived to be a good rate, I would buy their insurance. My sense is that putting an auto insurance banner ad that did not insult me on an auto site would make money. They are providing valuable content in a timely manner. Putting a pop-up for a miniature camera would not make me buy it and would probably disuade me from visiting the web site.
Successful TV ads and magazine ads often have demographic research and study behind them. With the booming Internet, the advertisers were lazy. For a while they were wildly successful. Then it caught up to them.
Where will it go in the future? Having a website is no longer a guarantee of success. But if you provide good content, offer a perceived value, people will come and bring their money them.
Of course, that is just my opinion.
Reply #20 Top
Advertisers sometimes use an intentional aggravation factor to make you remember their product. About 11 years ago I met a guy that was the "brains" behind a Honda campaign that was so obnoxious it actually made me swear I would never buy any Honda product as long as I lived. He was so proud when I conveyed my disgust with his ads. I was being very polite about it and he was boasting that my reaction meant the strategy worked perfectly. He said we expect the ads to cause angry outbursts, arguments among office workers, and basically a lot of conversation. The goal of the campaign was to polarize people into two sides, both of which would have the name Honda imprinted a little stronger in their minds. I explained a bit less politely that Honda would probably never get my respect again. He said that's fine, we know some people will be turned off but the majority of the american public is so stupid that they might not even be insulted by the ads but they will definitly remember the name. Then he pointed out that my reaction was a perfect example of this... I remembered Honda's name.

Madness....
Reply #21 Top
sorry... that last post was way off-topic.

The internet needs a revenue model that will provide the information and content sites with a way to afford their bandwidth and operating costs. I can't see this evolving in any way other than the users being asked to pay. The way this gets implemented will determine how successful it is. There has to be a percieved value greater than the expense of paricipating.

I know about one plan that makes a great deal of sense but is not quite ready to be discussed. I don't know all the details but I know it's going to be introduced very soon.

I hope the internet manages to continue providing information and supporting communities and special interests. The benefits of a free and unfettered internet for the growth of knowledge and social conscience throughout the world should be the real focus. The more that advertising agencies get to determine the future the bleaker the future looks...
Reply #22 Top
Well, the obvious solution to the failure of the current internet advertising model would seem to be sponsorship. WinCustomize makes it, through sponsorship from Stardock, and through low-key (and nice) merchandising, or so we assume.

So my question is this: *IS* WinCustomize managing to stay afloat? We see bandwisth usage reports, but not financial statements (which is fine; I don't really *want* to see financial statements). Between the sponsorship from Stardock and the CD/T-shirt/hat merchandising, is WinCustomize keeping its head above water?

And what about Stardock? Has their sponsorship of WC been profitable? Is it paying off?

If so, then this is what we'll probably see as the internet moves forward. Special interest sites with sponsorship from some company or group of companies that have a special interest in the special interest.
Reply #23 Top
I don't think WinCustomize can be used as a model for any new economy because WinCustomize is corporate charity. There's no business justification for a software company to have a skin site such as this. But smaller companies can do things because "they want to help" just like individuals do all the time. It's only when companies get really big that they become amoral.

Just to a few numbers. Let's say this site costs 10/month. Stardock currently puts forth 5 of it. That means the site is responsible for finding the other 5. Currently Stardock's also paying the other 5 since merchandize revenue hasn't been doing that great (we sold ONE shirt today, no hats, no CDs, etc.). Clearly merchandize isn't the answer alone.

I'm going to start a second message that talks about the seperate issue.
Reply #24 Top
Webmasters who want to generate revenue with their sites will have to start looking at their websites just as software developers look at software. That is, they will have to find something to put in them that is compelling enough to make users pay to have it. People don't generally donate or contribute their hard earned money freely. They have to be compelled to do it.

Any shareware developer already knows that. Nag screens don't work. You have to take away something from the user that compels them to purchase it.

So if you want your website to make money, you'll have to find a mechanism to compel your users to pay to use it. How that is will depend on the website.

When I was on DeviantArt, I suggested that they require users to sign up for a membership if they wanted to access non new additions to the library. Would that drive some people away? Sure. So what? Unless your site is generating revenue based on traffic, having lots of visitors is irrelevant.

But each site will have to find their own mechanism. But it'll have to be something pretty compelling. Just like in software, if there are alternatives freely available, users will simply go to that instead. Hence, Stardock makes a lot of money selling WindowBlinds but would probably not do so well selling a really nice text editor. Why? There are no alternatives to WindowBlinds but there are plenty of nice text editors.

Similarly, if you run a nice tech news website, you're up the creek. What are you going to charge for? There are a zillion tech news sites. Same for game news.

Advertising on the net is still very primitive. Somebody is going to take it over and it'll get a lot smarter and more importantly, more subtle. But that's only part of the solution.
Reply #25 Top
DavidK wrote "The internet needs a revenue model that will provide the information and content sites with a way to afford their bandwidth and operating costs." Information sites face different challenges than sites that provide a quantifiable good or service. Wincustomize provides both a quantifiable good (skins and themes) as well as information. I think people will ultimately be willing to help support this site- CD's, T-Shirts, tithes, blood donations, however. Sites that offer information without other content have to be careful that they either provide information available no where else, have some special format or editorial spin, some value ad. If they don't, they will fade away.