Combat calculation - bug ?

A starbase can't scratch a scout in the 5. campaign mission.

from GalCiv2 Forums
Yesterday I tried the 5. campaign mission under V1.1.
The problem I run into is: the Dread Lords build very fast some small scout level ships with > 100att, 16-20def and 8hp.
If they specialized at laser weapons I found I can't do anything to stand against them, because I can't research any other weapon tree than laser and never managed to research weapon powerful enough to crack the >16def before they overrun me. I other games they specialized at missle weapons and defense, so I think I may have a chance. I try to build up a single military starbase to protect my main domain. I managed to improve the starbase as much as I can before the dread lords scouts arrive, so I get a military starbase with 20/8-8/5-8/5 (att/def) .
The scouts arrive, sooner or later they attack my starbase and ... destroy them without a scratch. I tried this part may times by reload the game. If the 118/16(8hp) scout attack my 20/8-8/5-8/5(30hp) starbase the star base is destroyed and the scout have 8 of his 8 hp. Even if the animation shows that my starbase shout on the scout.

Very frustrating ...

And impossible by the combat mechanics as it is described in the manual.
The scout should have a max defense of 4 against my laser and particle weapons. May punch on this is two times 1-8 so I expected to scratch the scout at least at every second try.
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Reply #1 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
The problem is, the scout get to shot first and hence finish your starbase off in just 1 go with ~118 dmg. The animation indeed show that your starbase attack back. However, it's just animation . Please reread the manual about how atk works.
Reply #2 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
> The problem is, the scout get to shot first and hence finish your starbase off in just 1 go with ~118 dmg.
I know this, thats why I have run the fight multiple times. The scout does 1 to 118 dmg and the station should absorb 1-9 dmg. So I expect the station survive the first shoot in 1 of 4 matches (damage < 30hp).

(By the way - why do not the station the first shoot ? It is a military station, it is under attack and it has seen the attacker long before the battle start .... especially because a starbase can never attack)

> The animation indeed show that your starbase attack back. However, it's just animation
May be your right. But I noticed the animation change if the some party has no defense and so I think the animation is a little bit more accurate.
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Reply #3 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
The scouts have a large attack value, and even the defenses you have on your SB are way too little (the dreadlord ships' AVERAGE damage is 10 or so above your SB's total hp and maximum defense roll). Which means the scouts, since attackers fire first, probably blow up your SB before it is even able to fire back once.
Reply #4 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
By the way - why do not the station the first shoot ?

That's a really good idea...
Reply #5 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
Attacker: 8hp, (118, 0, 0) attack, (18, 0, 0) defense
Defender: 30hp, (20, 8, 8) attack, (8, 5, 5) defense

Probability of attacker winning: 82.2%

And a plot of the frequency of hitpoitns remaining after combat (100000 iterations):
Link
(This is based on several assumptions of how combat works... it uses a different formula for how damage is calculated than what you describe. All weapons are rolled together, for example.)
You going to have to be the attacker or have a large fleet to destroy a dread lord ship.

Reply #6 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
> Probability of attacker winning: 82.2%

Thanks
So I am not so bad with my 1 of 4 estimation.

But one point is open: I do more then a ten repetition of the essential game turns - in no one my station wins - or even scratch the scout.
May be I am just unluck - may be there is a bug or unknown factor in the combat calculation. I can't know. Thats why I ask !

This &#%% scouts is very fast (speed 11). Maybe the ship speed changes the hit probability ?

Reply #7 from GalCiv2 Forums Top
I don't think the speed affects anything.

So one of three things is going on: you were unlucky (only 14% chance that the enemy will win 10 out of 10), there's a bug, or something's wrong with my simulator and the real chance of the dread lord winning is higher than 82%.

The manual doesn't completely describe the combat and there's no solid source of information on it, so it's hard to know. You're not alone. And, to make it more fun, there is some weird behavior from time to time that is hard to explain (like this). So it really could be anything.