1.1 Beta -- Randomized Opponents are... not

Ctrl-N just resets the galaxy, it doesn't repick your opponents.

OK, I can accept that.

One other thing that is really weird is that I'm playing a custom race, and have quit and restarted four or five times, and none of my 8 random choices has ever included the Terrans. Not a big sample size however, obviously.

Probability of not getting Terrans as one of 8 picks = 20%

Probability of not getting Terrans as one of 8 picks 4 times in a row = 0.16%

You're right, that is odd.

Great thing about probability is that it's always probable! That above is a false situation as the only % chance is the first 20% one. Each time it is 20%, you can't add them together! And I thought I was bad at maths!

Great thing about probability is that it's always probable! That above is a false situation as the only % chance is the first 20% one. Each time it is 20%, you can't add them together! And I thought I was bad at maths!

While I'm not great at the math I can tell you that the odds of a 20 percent probablity happening 8 times in a row is fairly slim. I'll agree you can't just add them together and I'm too lazy to look up the math for this but no terrans after 8 tries seems sufficient enough to post about it to see if anybody else is having the same problem.

Edit: Actually, "Crow" might even be spot on. I'll check later after I've had a good nights sleep.

I think this is worth checking tho.. We all should try the same scenario and see what happens. Chances are that when you select custom race, the random selection "defaults" to you having selected the Terrans, in which case it never chooses it.

It doesn't matter Terrans suk anyways.

Psychoravin, yeah, I know the Terrans used to suck, but Brad said there were lots of AI changes for them in the 1.1 patch, even to the point of saying "You're really missing out if you're not playing against the Terrans". So it really sucks if you play as a custom race but can never get them when playing random opponents.

I have versed the Terrans on random so its probably just a coincidence.

Great thing about probability is that it's always probable! That above is a false situation as the only % chance is the first 20% one. Each time it is 20%, you can't add them together! And I thought I was bad at maths!

I bet that overall, your math is just fine. But in this particular situation, I'm afraid you're wrong. When there are multiple events involved and you want to find the overall probability, you do stack the individual probabilities. You don't add them though, you multiply them, as Prince of Crowns did. 20% of 20% is 4%, 20% of 4% is 0.8%, 20% of 0.8% is 0.16%. Now, you are somewhat right, in that in any single event, the odds of none of the races being the Terrans is always 20%. But when determining the probability of multiple events *together*, you need to multiply.

Not true.

Take pregnancy. The chance of getting a girl or boy is always 50%. You can have 100 kids and get all girls. The previous outcome has no bearing on the current one, because the odds are fixed each time.

Seeing as this is a computer game, the odds are fixed each time it chooses the races as well. That 20% of the time could possible only occur after 1000 flips of the coin, or maybe even a million. If the system somehow accounted for previous tosses then there will be an increasing chance of it happening. Otherwise, it is just as likely not to happen the first time as it is unlikely to happen the billionth.

The lottery is also another example. I'm tired, and don't feel like getting into the particulars, but trust me. It is the same as the gender of a child. It does not add nor multiply.

Actually AsokGreen is correct...but you are also correct

It really depends on the context of the question and situation. Let us take this example:

I flip a coin. I have a 50% chance it is heads. Obviously. No one would dispute that. I decide to flip the coin again. I still have a 50% chance it is heads. Obviously the reason for this is because there are only two possiblities: heads or tails. So in this scenario the question is "What is the chance of getting heads when you flip a coin?".

However, if I were to flip TWO coins at the same time? What would the chance of getting two heads? It wouldn't be 50% because there are more than two possiblities ie: head head, tail tail, head tail, tail head. So the probability is acutally 25% OR 50% times 50%.

So in other words when we are talking about "INDIVIDUAL" events or "SINGLE" events...then yeah...you are right...the probability is always the same. BUT if we talk about multiple simultaneous events then we must factor each probability.

Let use the example of the OP. He plays a game with 8 races. EACH INDIVIDUAL game will always give him 20% chance of getting terran. He restarts and tries again. Still 20%! BUT if he had 8 computers each with GC2 and he simultaneously create a game...then the probability of getting all terrans is 0.16%.

Let us use your example of pregnancy. The chance of a boy is ALWAYS 50% and vice versa for a female. Every pregnancy the chance of a boy is 50%. However, if you had two women and you ask "What is the chance of getting two boys" then that would be 25% because you can either have boy boy, girl girl, boy girl or girl boy ie. 1 in 4.

So in summary: For individual events/scenarios, the probs doesn't change but for multiple or simultaneous events you usually factor in the probs.

Exactly. It's the difference between the question, "What are the odds of flipping 'heads' a tenth time in a row?'" and the question, "What are the odds of flipping 'heads' ten times in a row?" The first deals only with a single event: the tenth flip of a coin. The second deals with a series of events: Ten flips of a coin. The single event, the tenth flip of a coin, still has odds of 50%, even if all previous flips were heads. But the series of events, ten flips of a coin, has the odds of each individual event multiplied together, which comes to a little less than 1%. If you still don't believe us, try it out. Flip a coin ten times and write down the results, then do another set of ten, and another. If the odds of flipping 'heads' ten times in a row is really 50%, then on average, it should happen every other time you do a set of ten. But if it's a little less than 1%, then on average, it should only happen about once in a hundred sets of ten.