Superior Fleet in every way gets a lower combat estimate than another fleet

In the screenshots below, Fleet 2 is superior to Fleet 1 in every way. It has better offense, defense, more hitpoints (heck fleet 1 is even slightly damaged), and more ships for more attacks. They are both using tiny hulls, and both within my borders so no adjustments there. However, you can see the combat assessment is night and day different.

Version 1.0

Files: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YM-kxVWDzxSRRJ869r4shuZT_l8g2Zxw/view?usp=sharing