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Would a collapse of the power grid be doomsday?

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Would a collapse of the power grid be doomsday?

from JoeUser Forums

About a year ago, I wrote “The lights go out: What happens if the grid goes down”.  It talked about what would likely happen if the power went out and works through the first 4 weeks.  In short, it’s not a pretty picture.

Doomsday Scenarios

Below are my opinions and just my opinions. They’re based on reading and researching these topics in my spare time out of morbid curiosity.  I define a doomsday scenario as a scenario where the civil society could potentially break down as a result.  The break down of civil society (law and order) would, in turn, activate the “preppers” various bug out / bug in contingency plans.

Scenario #1: Economic Collapse

I consider the likelihood of this happening to be basically zero.  It seems to be the most discussed, most feared scenario I read online. At the risk of alienating preppers right off the bat, I consider this scenario largely baseless.

 

Scenario #2: EMP attack

imageThis is the scenario where someone sets of a powerful electromagnetic pulse that fries the power grid and many low voltage dependent systems.  There is a lot of debate on the level of damage this would do.  My opinion is that any EMP attack worth considering would, at the very least, wreck the power grid for an extended period of time.  However, I don’t think it likely that it’ll take out cars (even modern cars).  While the computer systems in cars are sensitive and a car isn’t a true “faraday cage” I am highly skeptical that an EMP would take out most cars, modern or not.

Nevertheless, an EMP attack would probably cause many millions of people to be without power for an extended period of time.

The odds of this happening in our lifetime I think are pretty low.  If I had to guess, maybe 1 in 100.

Scenario #3: Solar based EMP

imageSometimes called coronal mass ejections, these solar based EMPs could truly wreck our day. We’ve had them before (Carrington Event) which occurred in the 19th century. Had this hit us today, we’d have a huge issue (I’d guess worldwide power outages that could take months to repair).

We had one in 2013 on July 16th…well, almost. It missed us by a solar day.  So this isn’t a question of if, it’s a question of when and how bad.  The electrical grid in most countries is hooked up like an extra fragile Christmas tree.  It would not be inaccurate to describe it as “cobbled” together.  It works but it’s not very robust.  It takes remarkably little to knock out the power for huge swaths of territory.

The odds of this happening in our lifetime are pretty low also. I’d say 1 in 50.

Scenario #4: Cyber based attack

imageThis one worries me quite a bit because few people are aware of it. Some people have heard Stuxnet and other weaponized computer worms that have been used to slow down Iran’s nuclear program.  But few people have given much thought of how vulnerable the United States and other western countries are to this kind of attack. 

In 2003, the Northeast of the United States and Canada went without power for about a week, affecting 45 million people. It was largely caused by a software bug at a single power station in Ohio.  Imagine a malicious attempt to wreck the control systems for the power grid.

The odds of this happening I think are a lot less remote than people think. Probably 1 in 25 in our lifetime.

Why losing power is such a big deal

Overall, I’d say that the odds of something causing a national, extended power outage to be about 1 in 10.  Anyone under 50 probably has no experience of just how recent electrical power actually is.  A century ago, most people didn’t have electricity and even 75 years ago, it was considered pretty flaky.  Yet, today, we are totally and completely dependent on it.

Let’s walk through a few of the things that would happen if we lost electrical power for an extended period of time.

  1. Our logistics system would be trashed.  We are now very dependent on “Just in time” infrastructure. That is, we don’t keep huge warehouses anymore. We deliver things just as needed to maximize efficiency.  To put things into perspective, you could cripple our economy just by wiping out the computers at Fed Ex and UPS. 
  2. Little food. Your local supermarket relies on daily inventory replenishment. Even if the trucks and trains and such are still running, the ability to deliver food would be severely disrupted. 
  3. No gas. Our capacity to refine, deliver and distribute gasoline would be curtailed dramatically. So while I don’t personally think there’s a realistic scenario where your cars and such would be directly affected by a viable doomsday scenario, your ability to drive might not last very long.
  4. No money. How much cash do you keep on hand? No power, no credit card processing.  Let’s focus on this a second. Next time you’re out doing something, consider what would happen if you no longer had the ability to use a credit/debit card but instead had to rely purely on the cash on hand. How would that work out for you? Imagine a cyber attack that disrupted the merchant account services sector and nothing else. What about ATMs? Nope, they’re down.  How about going to a teller? No power, they can’t tell you how much you’ve got in the bank. I think we’d be able to quickly adapt (i.e. write things down, as long as you have an ID, but it would slow things to a crawl).
  5. Water. Water is something I think we would probably do okay with. We’d soon run out of running water but barring a truly worst case scenario, this is one area I think the government could help large %’s of the population with (distributing water). But if you’re in a more rural area, it would get sticky and our ability to produce and deliver food would still become a huge problem.  I’m just saying I don’t think water would be the “SHTF” trigger in a likely doomsday scenario. At least, as long as the government is up and running and can coordinate with local producers/distributors of bottled water.
  6. Habitation. God forbid that this happen in the Winter.  Natural gas would likely flow for a long while but you wouldn’t be able to do much with it if there’s no electricity. Similarly, our ability to store food (no refrigeration) would be reduced.
  7. Communication.  Our ability to communicate would drop to nill. I think much of the Internet, powered through extensive backup systems (depending on the severity, a really powerful EMP might wreck the ability of natural gas based backup systems to function) would be ok.  But our ability to connect to it would be greatly reduced. I’m not confident my local cell tower or Comcast would be up for the duration.

There’s probably more I am not thinking of here. In, fact, I’m sure there are.  Moreover, the severity of the points above really are dependent on how resources/handy you are. The big question though is how long would modern civil society be able to last without electricity?  How habitable is a modern American city without electricity? Would/could order be maintained?

The big assumption I make here is that our vehicles would still work.  I can envision EMP based catastrophes that are bad enough to fry most cars. My problem with those scenarios is that they’re about as likely as us being hit by a extinction level asteroid/comet or a mega volcano or a super plague at which point, all bets are off.

No, to me, the big question would be maintaining civil society.

The thin veneer of civilization

For the purposes of our discussion, things don’t really “hit the fan” until civil society breaks down. In my opinion, the most likely trigger for that would be lack of food.

I have a high confidence in our government’s ability to obtain and deliver water for a long period of time.  I also believe that state and local authorities could obtain and distribute food for an extended period of time – a month for instance. But without our modern logistics system up and running, after a month, food shortages would become very serious. 

There have been many documentaries on how our food is produced now (manufactured is probably more accurate). It’s a very complex industrial process with a lot of moving parts.  It’s not like we would stop producing any food at all.  But our ability to feed 300+ million people daily rests on our modern manufacturing and logistics system which is dependent on electricity.

So for me, the big question is, how long, without electricity, would most people be able to obtain enough food to feed themselves and their families.  Once the ability to obtain food without violence disappears, so too does civil society.

So what do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Also:

Check out the Ultimate Bug out Vehicle.

170,637 views 39 replies
Reply #26 from Stardock Forums Top

LOL NCIS?   What the heck do they have to do with this?    First off I am not active duty anymore, I was retired in 2011 due to my 7th service connected injury.   Second off I have said NOTHING that is or could be taken as classified at all.   What I have talked about is public release knowledge you can look up via Google if you would take a moment.

NCIS?   You watch too much TV I am afraid.   They only have jurisdiction on ACTIVE duty U.S. Naval personnel... which includes the Marines since they are part of the U.S. Navy.

Regardless, I have not broken my oath nor any other classified rules.  You do not know me.  If you did you would know I am a staunch supporter of the Constitution, 2nd Amendment rights and fully believe in the oath I took to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.   I am one of those that if they let me, I would stand up and serve again for that reason.  

Everything I talk about or say is public knowledge... even if you have to dig for it to find it.

Couple examples:   Look at the orders Obama has passed like the one that now allows the government to seize any public or private assets, food, supplies or whatever on the governments command, or how with a simple order of martial law they can now suspend Miranda, posse comitatus, and habeaus corpus... the construction of the fusion centers and the so called 'residential centers' ... and there is more...

Oh and BTW, you can look THOSE orders up on either the Whitehouse.gov OR the Homeland security websites!

People need to wake up and start reading and paying attention.. things are happening right under your noses and you have no clue.   And NONE of that information is classified and is available for public reading if only you take the time to look it up on the governments own websites.

 

 

Reply #27 from Elemental Forums Top

The talk of a government collapse or debts being called in triggering this event is silly talk.

When you have a fiat currency, you can print money to pay bills, and you can also default if you wish as well.

 

There's a reason Greece became a complete basketcase and Iceland is recovering despite having worse fundamentals.

 

 

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Reply #28 from Stardock Forums Top

About a month is best for most people.  Here is why.

I teach people how to survive under different conditions including climates (summer, winter etc).

First, if you truly want to set yourself up with a survival/emergency kit or bugout bag as it is also called, here are some tips.

1) If you live in the city, only get what you can carry!  Only carry what you can run and escape with!   Have a plan to leave WITHOUT a car because highways WILL be blocked.. if not by everyone else trying to get out then by roadblocks due to government mandate.

2) If you live in the country, only store that which you do not want to leave to someone else.  Store only what you can carry either on your person or via a vehicle if you need to leave your place.   IF you want to stock up a bunch of stuff, build and/or put it someplace HIDDEN and secure NOT in your basement or primary buildings on your property.

 

Now as for the kit your kit should include:

1) Some kind of water purification system (you can look up all the ways to purify online).   I recommend straining, boiling then bleach or some other water treatment drops.  You do NOT need to store months of water unless you live in a desert area.  We get enough rain, there are enough streams, lakes and rivers in the U.S. for you to easily find water.

2) dehydrated food packs.  Enough for 1 to 3 months depending on what each person in your group/family can carry.  You want something light yet able to give you nutrition with nothing more than adding water.

3) Fire starting.. i.e. flint, battery with steel wool etc.  Definitely something that allows you to spark and start fire without running out..  Lighters and matches are NOT good examples.

4) Rope, a mirror, razor blades, steel wool, candles and ZIPLOCK bags that can be sealed completely against water.

5) At least two knives of good quality

6) Solar charger along with rechargeable batteries for each electronic device you will bring...  Flashlight and a small emergency radio.. NOTHING else due to weight.

7) Fishing line, hooks, etc

8) Small cook kit (like military or boy scouts use)

9) two sets of clothes but at least 5 pairs of clean socks

10) Emergency blankets x 2 plus 2 x emergency tarps.   They are lightweight, hold in heat and the tarps can also be used to create shelter as well.

11) Glow sticks of at least 8 hours.  Preferably BLUE or red.   Blue preferable because the light does not carry as far and in this case you do not want people to see you glowing in the dark.  You want just enough light to see yourself.

12) Duck tape and black electrical tape

13) small good set of binoculars

14) small good star light night scope

15) Any medicines you and your family needs.  Get extra prescriptions if needed to store in your emergency kit

16) at least two 2 x primary firearms, preferably one sidearm and one long rifle.  Calibers of 9mm and any other long rifle size ABOVE .22 caliber so that you can easily find more ammo.  Think of common hunting calibers, 30-30, 30-06, .223, 308, 22-223, etc.   You want calibers that will knock someone down or stop them in most cases with ONE shot.   This is why I do not agree with those who would tell you that a .22 is just fine.  It is not.  Your chances of stopping an attack are small unless you hit them in a specific spot and for someone not an expert that is near impossible with adrenaline.  EACH member should also have at least one sidearm they carry with 4 magazines for it.  Keep in mind ammo is heavy so you need to not overload yourself in this regard.  Learn the mantra, one shot one kill and practice it both in your head AND on the range.

17) A compass!  Electronics WILL be useless!  Your cellphone will NOT work.  You need a good ole fashion compass.

18)  A PLAN!  A map and a bug out/escape route!   So many people forget this one step.  Know WHERE you intend on escaping to!

 

Now, this kit will keep you going as long as you need.  You have the ability to get clean water.  You can hunt for food. And you are light enough to be mobile.

There are some people that simply have decided to hole up, stock up and stay where they are.  Unless you have a group of 20 or more people in YOUR group, all armed, then this is a big mistake.   Why?   Let's say you hole up and you have stocked up 5 years of food, 50,000 rounds of ammo and lot's of other items.   Should the disaster event last longer than a month, you WILL see roving groups and gangs form and start looking for supplies.  And if you are holed up with just your family, you just gave them a nice fat target and there is no way you will ever be able to defend against a large group if you have less than 20 people in your group.   In essence you have just handed the roving gang 5 years of food and 50,000 rounds of ammo!

Why is your survival pack only equipped with what I wrote?   Because if you do not have a plan and an idea of where to go, if you are not able to find shelter and a defensibly place, if you are not able to find others like you to group together with for safety, it will not matter how much stuff you have.   The pack I setup will easily allow you to stay self sufficient for 30 days or possibly 60 days... and that should be sufficient time for you to get where you need or find others to hook up with.

 

Reply #29 from WinCustomize Forums Top

I think Step #1 in ANY survival plan is... keep away from nutters....;p

Reply #30 from GalCiv2 Forums Top

Quoting Alstein, reply 27

The talk of a government collapse or debts being called in triggering this event is silly talk.

When you have a fiat currency, you can print money to pay bills, and you can also default if you wish as well.

 

There's a reason Greece became a complete basketcase and Iceland is recovering despite having worse fundamentals.

 

 
End of Alstein's quote


Printing money and defaulting would be unwise. Doing either will have consequences. Printing money would lead to inflation (meaning that the price of goods will rise, and money unspent will quickly lose value). I'm unsure what will defaulting the US economy will do (I'm currently looking into that), but some of the stuff I've read strongly suggests that it will reduce faith in the US economy and cause interest rates to rise world wide (the US currency is considered safe and reliable, so the US defaulting will undermine that faith).

While either might fix the mentioned economic problem, one might question is the medicine worse than the disease.

Reply #31 from Sins Forums Top

Very interesting. Posting here to keep tabs on the responses.

 

Reply #32 from LittleTinyFrogs Forums Top

Maybe I'm just naive, but I think the only nations able to deliver an 'EMP' attack against the US wouldn't want to. Maybe China "could' do it, but at this point their economy is so intertwined with the US's that doing so would be self defeating for China... so unless some rogue element within China was behind the attack, I can't see it happening. Russia is probably less dependent on the US directly, but what is bad for the US will be bad for Western Europe and that will make things very hard for Russia --- I don't think they would do it.

I think the countries that might WANT to destroy the US's grid (Iran, North Korea, etc.), probably just don't have the ability.

After situations like Katrina and Sandy, I find myself more worried about natural disasters which may get worse as the seas rise and warm. I don't live anywhere near the sea (Michigan), so that's OK for me, but so much of the world's population does... and if the coasts become less habitable, that will affect us all, right?

Reply #33 from Elemental Forums Top

Quoting DivineWrath, reply 30


Quoting Alstein, reply 27
The talk of a government collapse or debts being called in triggering this event is silly talk.

When you have a fiat currency, you can print money to pay bills, and you can also default if you wish as well.

 

There's a reason Greece became a complete basketcase and Iceland is recovering despite having worse fundamentals.

 

 

Printing money and defaulting would be unwise. Doing either will have consequences. Printing money would lead to inflation (meaning that the price of goods will rise, and money unspent will quickly lose value). I'm unsure what will defaulting the US economy will do (I'm currently looking into that), but some of the stuff I've read strongly suggests that it will reduce faith in the US economy and cause interest rates to rise world wide (the US currency is considered safe and reliable, so the US defaulting will undermine that faith).

While either might fix the mentioned economic problem, one might question is the medicine worse than the disease.
End of DivineWrath's quote

 

Never said those solutions wouldn't be bad- I'm saying they wouldn't lead to some doomsday scenario where we have the power grid collapse.

 

We're sufficiently resource independent enough that we could get by in such a scenario.

 

Reply #34 from Elemental Forums Top

Bottom line:  Live fully in the moment, happy thoughts, treat everyone well (including yourself).  And have a back up ready just in case your part of society goes SOS.  Just don't focus or dwell on the back up.  Life is to short.  IMHO

Reply #35 from GalCiv2 Forums Top

Quoting Alstein, reply 27



There's a reason Greece became a complete basketcase and Iceland is recovering despite having worse fundamentals.

 

 
End of Alstein's quote

This.

:)

Reply #36 from LittleTinyFrogs Forums Top

I think everyone should have at least a few days food and water at their home in the event of any type of emergency.  I also think that most people (not all but  most) should have some sort of emergency kit (what preppers would call a "bug out bag") handy in case there is an earthquake or fire or something of that nature where they have to leave in a hurry. 

I'm amazed at how many people, here in Michigan, in the Winter, will drive in to work with just a light coat, jeans and a t-shirt.  

When I was in my early 20s, being the dumb kid I was, I drove to my mom's house in an ice storm wearing just a t-shirt and jeans in my Chevette. The car slid off the road into a ditch on a country road late at night. Nearest house was probably over a mile away.  Luckily, a truck came by a few minutes later and dragged me out.  But ha that not happened, I could have potentially died of exposure (no cell phones back then, just 1am in the middle of nowhere).

Now, moving beyond common sense emergency readiness involves some time, money and effort and that's something each person has to decide for themselves whether that's worth it. 

For me, I enjoy learning new things and being more self reliant plus I"m fortunate enough to be able to afford it.  But it's not something I would consider unless I already had the basics in place.

Reply #37 from Sins Forums Top

I'd drive to work in a leather jacket, t-shirt, short and sandals in the middle of winter in Michigan, but I'm not exactly normal.  I can do 30 below zero dressed like that and be just peachy for hours, dressed like that all winter in Anchorage and walked around town.

Reply #38 from Elemental Forums Top

Everyone should have an emergency kit in their car. So in the event you do just go to work in your jeans and a t-shirt you still have a sleeping bag, extra clothes, fire kit, first aid kit, etc. At least this is what I had in my car at all times. First aid kit proved useful a few time (not just for band aids but more serious injuries one never expects). You can probably find a good selection of stuff online somewhere.