[1.0.9w] To-hit percentage looks off

I've reported this before but the maths used to generate the 'to-hit' percentage during tactical battles looks wrong. Quite often I'll have a to-hit percentage of 90%+ yet score multiple dodge results. When I ran the numbers based on old formulas it was quite different as well.

1,201 views 3 replies
Reply #1 Top

Maybe your confusing the statistics. For instance a 90% chance to hit doesn't mean that 9 out of 10 swings will hit. It simply means each swing has a 90% chance of hitting.  Its neither impossible nor improbable to see 2 or so misses even with a 90% hit probability.

 

To explain in a little more abstract way. Flipping a coin means you have a 50% chance of getting heads each time.. it doesn't mean that 1 out of every 2 flips you will actually get heads.

 

Now that's not to say the statistics couldn't be off... simply that missing a few times in a row on occasion doesn't mean that they are.

Reply #2 Top

Yeah, I'm consistently seeing 'anomolies' in the displayed statistics as well, i.e. what I see happening ingame consistently doesn't seem to reflect what the odds calculator is showing.

Reply #3 Top

I wrote this post about calculations a while ago and would love someone from Stardock to let us know what/if things have changed.

The problem is that the math we were given earlier doesn't stack-up with the hard numbers in the game and this is supported by the game-play.