Replace Hacker Array with Futures Market

from Offworld Forums

PBHead mentioned the idea for a derivatives market in a different post about the Hacker Array... and I wanted to flesh out the idea a little more.  I think its a fantastic idea that would add a realistic feel without being too complicated to grasp.

Replace the Hacker Array with a Futures Market.  Its still a building that gets made but it gives you access to a different way to make money that does not effect the current production goods market.

The interface for the current hacker array would stay the same, simply change the buttons to Put/Call (put- price goes down, call- price goes up).  After a player selects put or call, another splash screen pops up with the contract (EX: Chem, 500 units, Strike (current) $75, Day 4, $90, ).  The player enters the units, the day, and the final price guess.  I know this will be difficult to predict as total length of any game is variable, but a moving 7 day window should work.    

So day 4 rolls around and the contract expires... If the player's instinct is exactly precise, then the player will be rewarded with $7500 (price difference x units).  If the player is close to the final price, then a sliding percentage is calculated, with a cap at both ends... the final price must be within $10 to receive anything.  If the price finishes outside the $10 deviation, then the player loses the max of $7500... taken from cash (margin call) with any remainder going to debt.

A distant prediction can be rewarded or penalized with an additional modifier.  1 day, none, 2 day 10%, day 3, 25%.... 

I think this mechanic can add an additional level of deep thinking and analysis of the players, map, current situation... everything.  

Look forward to hear what you guys think.

 

8,317 views 5 replies
Reply #1 from Offworld Forums Top

I think the core idea is an interesting one, and quite possibly worth testing, but I'd prefer a much simpler system.

Again, replacing Short/Surplus with Put/Call makes sense, but I'd be inclined to make it a bit more like the Offworld Market.  You can Put/Call any resource, and it is a put/call of a fixed amount of that resource (probably want to do some testing to figure that out).  Either option you pick starts a timer on the building, again you'd probably want to do some playtesting to figure out what the right time-frame is here, and it's probably related to the size of contracts.

Your sell/buy price for the resource is locked at the time you initiate your Put/Call, and when the timer expires, a Put sells the contract size (again, this is some sort of constant) for your locked price, and then pays for that many units of the material at the current market price.  For a Call, you buy at your locked price and sell at the current market price.

It might also be worth experimenting with letting the resources go into/come out of your company stockpiles so that if you have a big stockpile of iron, and think the price is going to crash, you can Put on iron to "lock in" the higher current price, but that could get a bit complicated...

Anyway, the problem you're going to run into, I think, is that this would be a building with some real risk to it, as an unexpected random shortage could murder you without any real ability to adjust to it.  That suggests that you'd need a similarly high reward on the other side...  It's also not clear what counter-play this option offers.  I like that there's a lot of counter-play in the game at the moment, and I would want to know how this adds to that.  Which, again, might be something that emerges in testing...

Reply #2 from Offworld Forums Top

The core principle that keeps running around my head with this idea is its ability to be used as a catch-up/punishment mechanism with cash without effecting the current production market (by extension the other players)... with the primary determining factors being the players game situation and market awareness.

There might be a way to combined both ideas, with a simple option box.

You have an early/mid game where you can be a speculator trading in only cash...or debt with the same basic layout in my first post. Player can choose contract size, price and DTG  This can help a player who falls behind to recover quicker and stay competitive in the match with a sudden influx of cash.  Or it can take a player who has a lead... and punish them for a bad decision, bringing them back to the pack by a sudden loss of cash and possibly heavy increase in debt.

So... late game... here is where it can get really interesting... click the option for "use your stockpile" or something to that effect... now you are selling your REAL resources to the OWM but a player can make more money on the shipment of the same quantity of goods by placing the put/call at the beginning of the shipment.  Shipment amount stays the same, 100 units.  Final price determined 1 sec before lift off.  Punishment  for finishing "out of the money" would be a reduced final payment... yes, the player would get some money, but not as much as if they had not chosen to play the market and gone with the straight OWM price.

 

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Reply #3 from Offworld Forums Top

A futures market would include an agreement between two players for a qty of a resource at a specific price for delivery on a future day. 

Reply #4 from Offworld Forums Top

For me is more like "marketing / Publicity" => Making the value of supply disconnect from there production cost.

The building could also be named "Marketing Agency".

 

Biokimist

Reply #5 from Offworld Forums Top

Futures as I described above would provide a rich set of strategies:

  • profit by selling futures and delivering at a lower price 
  • profit by buying futures and selling at a higher price
  • lock in profit by buying futures and selling them at a higher price (and the converse)
  • lock in profit by buying input futures (iron, si, etc), producing goods, and selling output futures (steel, glass, etc)

the mechanic is relatively simple but the gameplay results are vast. the key is making sure the daily settlement price of the resource is accurate. given that there are only 8 participants in the market, there is probably not enough liquidity to make this work. t

it it would be amazing to see though.