Ohio, Iowa going to determine outcome of election

New data from The Political Machine's statistical model

from PolMach Forums

Polls are interesting things but statistical analysis is my thing.  And based on our models in The Political Machine, Kerry is going to squeak out a victory in November barring a sudden change in events.

But the Florida of 2004 may be where you least expect it - Iowa. Ohio and Iowa are going to be the key states this time. But it is Iowa that people should be keeping an eye on even more so than Ohio or Florida. It has a relatively low population which creates all kinds of opportunity for interfering with the final results.

Moreover, Bush can potentially win the election and still lose Ohio as long as he gets Iowa.  That's because Wisconsin is likely to go Bush this time.  So you could have the unusual scenario where Bush wins the election despite losing Ohio.  In that event, it would be Bush 271 to Kerry's 267.

Obviously when it's as close as it is, it's really hard to make a definitive prediction. Our statistical model is not poll driven but is instead issue driven. The war in Iraq is no longer as strongly favored by independents and the jobs issue in Ohio has increased. Those two issues, along with a host of minor changes in other areas, have made the election even closer.

So our prediction right now is that Kerry has an advantage even though national polls currently favor Bush. And that the two states to watch out for are Ohio and Iowa. The computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry in our simulations now focus almost exclusively on those two states.  New Mexico could also go either way but it isn't statistically relevant.

This article does not indicate a preference by Stardock or Ubi Soft. It is just a report from our statistical model and from waching the computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry.  If you're an American, regardless of where you live, please make sure you are registered to vote and vote this November.

Stardock hopes to release an update to The Political Machine shortly after the election with updates to the various issues in the game.

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8,792 views 5 replies
Reply #1 from PolMach Forums Top
I'm not sure I would give FL and WI to Bush just yet. All of the polls that I have seen for those two states have a margin of error such that Kerry may win by 7% or lose by 9%. I'm sure that we are all in for a big surprise on election day, not just in Iowa and Ohio. The important thing for Kerry supporters is to go vote, because without a strong base, it will be hard for Kerry to win the election... very hard.
Reply #2 from PolMach Forums Top
Frogboy, how did you run that simulation? How did you get the computer to play against itself? Can I do it with my copy of the PolMachine?
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Reply #3 from PolMach Forums Top
I live in Iowa, and I personally believe the polls are going to be wrong. Democrats have outdone Republicans in registering new voters 5 to 1 and independents even beat out Republicans 2 to 1. The difference in the last election for this state was about 2 votes per precinct. For their last visits to the 2nd largest city, Cedar Rapids, Bush had about 3000 people at his rally compared to about 10,000 for Kerry. According to the latest polling Bush is barely leading in Iowa and Wisconsin, both of which went to Gore in 2000. I think the Bush campaign is hoping to steal those state back into his column. However if he loses Florida and Ohio, which are certainly in the margin of error, it could be a steamroll for Kerry over 300 EVs.
Reply #4 from PolMach Forums Top
Judging by what the NON ai Bush and Kerry are focusing on, it would seem like Florida would be the biggest swing state right now... since Iowa(7) + Ohio(20) = Florida(27). Why is Florida considered an easy Bush win here?
Reply #5 from PolMach Forums Top
Citizen nyvelion - 11/1/2004 5:14:57 AM
Judging by what the NON ai Bush and Kerry are focusing on, it would seem like Florida would be the biggest swing state right now... since Iowa(7) + Ohio(20) = Florida(27). Why is Florida considered an easy Bush win here?


delusion?