What I do is to calculate the break even point between the income loss from having to give up a certain number of tiles for food and approval versus the income gain from having a higher population. This is actually very easy to do using a simple equation in a spreadsheet and the same equation works for both DL and DA and I assume will work the same for TA as well.
Once I have knowledge of the income break even point than I will allow my population to rise on all planets that will give me an equal or better income at a higher pop.
The key is to come up with the number of tiles you need to give up to control your approval at a reasonable level at the desired population. This number of tiles will depend on what you consider reasonable approval levels, how many morale resources you control and the level of your morale ability. This will vary on the version of the game you're playing, the size of the game you're playing and just random differences from game to game.
Let's just take a random example and at the same time limit the problem by considering the two normal cases that you'll have for DL and DA.
In DL and DA the normal options are 13B and 20B. The first thing I do is to just consider PQ11+ planets as candidates for the higher pop value because they have the 10% approval bonus. This just makes life easier and all in all you could reasonably get the odd PQ9 or PQ10 up to 20B if it has a food and approval bonus but there are so few planets that are worthwhile in this category that you're best off ignoring them.
So OK you're only going to consider planets PQ11+, now what. The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many tiles you have to give up to have an acceptable approval at the 20B. The "normal" numbers for DL are 3 and 4 while for DA these are 4 and 5. Actually these are normal gigantic galaxy numbers. 3 is actually the number in DL presuming 6 or perhaps 5 morale resources to mine and all morale techs and wonders. Of course this number rises on smaller galaxies with fewer morale resources. In the case of DA the higher numbers I quoted basically presume the cap on the effectiveness of morale resource mining so smaller galaxies in DA don't hurt as much.
In tiny galaxies you may as well forget about all of this and simply limit yourself to 13B. However you could use the following analysis to decide between 6B and 13B in the case of smaller galaxies, however you will need to figure that out from the equations I give since the table at the end of all of this only applies to the 13B/20B choice.
This is based on the assumption that you need one extra tile for the farm and then you need the rest for VRC's. Take the basic case of 3 which is what I usually see in gigantic galaxy DL games where I get about 6 morale resources to mine. So what I'm saying is that to change a planet at 13B to 20B and keep its approval at "reasonable" levels I need an extra farm and two VRC's. If at 20B you determine you need an extra farm and 3 extra VRC's then the number is 4 and so on.
OK so I've established the number of tiles I need to give up to have a higher pop, now what. Well next you need to look at the income equations for DL and DA. These have been published in a couple of places. I think it was Iztok that derived these and Wyndstar may have been involved as well. Anyway the equations for DL and DA are similar but not identical due to differences in coefficients but you don't need to deal with the full equation. Basically in DA you use the DA equation to figure out the income from a pop with 13B and you use the same DA equation to figure out the income from a pop of 20B. Since what is important is the ratio of these two values a number of terms as well as the coefficients drop out of the equation.
The same is true for DL. You're determining the ratio of income at two different populations using the DL equation and in fact all the specific DL coefficients and terms drop out of the equation and you can use the same equation for both DL and DA. And unless they change the core of the equation for TA the same equation applies for TA as well.
Basically the "reduced" equation that applies for all versions of the game is only suitable to determine the ratio of the income at one pop to the income at another pop. It's not suitable for an absolute income calculation, for that you would need the full equations. By that I mean you can use the simple equation to determine if you will make more income on a particular planet at 13B than at 20B but it won't tell you what the income will be at either 13B or 20B just the ratio of the two incomes.
Anyway with all that established the equation is SQRT(POP)*(1+N*0.25) where POP is your 13B or 20B or actually any particular pop you wish to establish and N is the number of stockmarkets on the planet once all your approval and food tiles are taken out of consideration. This assumes that a stockmarket gives you a 25% income bonus. You can count economic capitals simply as two stockmarkets.
Before I get into more details there are a few more things to consider. Let's say you figure that to have acceptable approval at 20B versus 13B you need to give up 3 tiles. Your break even point requires that the 20B planet will have at least 9 stockmarkets on it. That's saying that the two following equations are about equal.
SQRT(13B)*(1+12*0.25) ; 13B with 12 stockmarkets
SQRT(20B)*(1+9*0.25) ; 20B with 9 stockmarkets
So for it to be economically worthwhile to let a planet go to 20B then you'll need 9 stockmarkets left on the planet at 20B. Clearly if you don't overbuild your planets to *all* stockmarkets in the late game then its going to be very hard to have that many stock markets. Also even if you do overbuild your planets with stockmarkets then 9 is still a pretty big number. Assuming a initial colony building along with the two total food tiles and two VRC's then that pretty much requires PQ14+ which is part of the reason I limited to PQ11+ in the first place. Of course bonus tiles reduce these requirements significantly. Also in DL you need to count actual tiles since they can vary significantly from the planets listed PQ. I've seen PQ11's with 16 tiles.
So any case it's easy enough to plop the above equations into excel and play around with the number of stockmarkets needed to justify the higher pop at the different number of tiles you may need to give up. Obviously the higher this number the more stockmarkets and hence higher PQ planet it will take to justify the higher pop. As an example if you need to give up 4 tiles to achieve the higher pop then the 9 stockmarkets becomes 13.
One more thing is important here and that is bonus tiles both food and approval. If you have a single food or approval bonus tile then that automatically reduces the number of tiles you need to give up from 3 to 2 and this changes a lot. Now instead of 9 stockmarkets on the 20B planet to break even you only need 5. That's a big difference. If you get a food *and* approval tile on a planet you suddenly only need to give up only one tile (assuming your initial number is 3) and that means you only need a single stockmarket left on the 20B planet in order to justify the higher pop.
I basically use this spreadsheet every game to determine what planets I leave at 13B and which I let rise to 20B.
To cut to the chase and just give out some numbers here's a table of how many stockmarkets need to be left on the high pop planet based on how many tiles you need to achieve that higher pop. I start with 1 due to the possibility of food/approval tiles. Note that this table only applies to the 13B/20B decision. For other pop values you'd have to go back to the ratios of "reduced" equations to determine the equivilient values.
Giving up 1 tile requires 1 stockmarket left on planet at higher pop.
Giving up 2 tiles requires 5 stockmarkets left on planet at higher pop.
Giving up 3 tiles requires 9 stockmarkets left on planet at higher pop.
Giving up 4 tiles requires 13 stockmarkets left on planet at higher pop.
Giving up 5 tiles requires 17 stockmarkets left on planet at higher pop.
Hope this helps someone.