Rich, little late on your post. We've been over that argument and I've been soundly beaten in it.
Oh, it makes me a Devil's Advocate. Sometimes the best way to advance science is to oppose it.
For someone who has been pretty goddamn vociferous in their contempt for scientists over the last few posts, you should realise that you shouldn't beleive everything you read even if it is from they highly laudable *sic* scientific american. As for the dinosaurs dying out - man it could have been pretty much anything - big chunks of rock falling outta the sky even an ice age might have done it.. What peculiar property of the atmosphere? being ambiguous is not helping here... |
... I wasn't being ambiguous and actually stated said peculiar property. And, after doing some research, I found something important that makes the entire concept inaccurate: http://www.lanl.gov/news/releases/archive/01-028.shtml
I'm sorry, but which one of us proposed dumping a nuke into the the planet?.. And anyway if its the USA that does it, whos gonna stop them? Especially if the whole project is for mankinds benefit...And nothing needs to eat the bugs, if we get to this level of geneering technology then I'm sure that they can be made like the mayfly... |
... Okay, we need someone who actually knows quite a bit about biology and ecology in here.
Have you ever stopped and looked at the mayfly? I've been in the areas they like to inhabit. When its mating season, you can literally get so many mayflies covering everything that you can't see the ground below their bodies. And considering they do it every year, I would say the mayfly is a very, very bad example. What we get is a fast-living, fast-breeding species that will very quickly spread... And, since we're talking about bacteria and insects (two of the fastest-evolving types of life on Earth), we're talking about the possibility of extreme populations within a mere five years. As the bacteria and the insect spread, what food supplies will they cut off from other species? What kinds of effects will these new species have on the long term?
Keep in mind that "short term solution for the good of mankind" often equals "long term problem that causes mankind a lot of problems." Gasoline is in that category, and look at all of the issues we're comming up with related to it now. Putting antibiotics in various items is another example, and right about now we're having problems with supergerms as a result, and we know the immunity that makes them such is only going to spread as time goes on. Top it all off, we're getting more and more evidence that all of our efforts to improve the health of mankind are actually having the opposite effect in that people in the nations with the best medical care also tend to have the worst immune systems when compared to the areas with the worst medical care.
All of those were short-term solutions for the good of mankind, and every one of them is only serving to cause mankind more harm in the long run. What's the next short term solution going to do? Introduce a superplague that kills all of humanity? Create an AIDS-Ebola hybrid (yes, this is something that was actually proposed)? Burn off Earth's atmosphere? Gee, why don't we just go for the ultimate short-term solution and simply nuke mankind out of existance?
Its amazing how statistics can be used to good effect to fool even intelligent people such as yourself that sitting on your arse is a good thing. |
It's amazing how even intelligent people can be convinced by statistics to rush in head first without all of the information, such as yourself. I'm not saying to do nothing. I am saying to take the time to do research and gather more information about possible long-term affects. I don't want mankind to look back, twenty years from now, and say, "You know, all of those doomsayers about [insert solution here] were right..." I'd rather them say, "Wow! This solution is going to work for centuries! We won't need to replace it within a few generations, like we did with gasoline."
The population of earth counts towards about 12% of co2 emmissions, the rest is from industry, automobiles and energy production and use. |
Okay, let's use the information from this page for now: http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/volcanoes.htm
12% of 110 billiob tons is 13.2 billion tons. That's still more than the amount produced by volcanos. Consider that, when volcanoes do it, it's usually part of or a warning of a possible disaster and potential loss of life. Humans do it just by breathing. To add to that, keep in mind that 88% also includes such pollution-intense activities as producing solar panels (more pollution produced per panel than that of diesal engine in one year), public transportation (must buses around here use diesal engines, the most pollutive type of engine out there), creating or disposing of batteries (which can be considered toxic waste due to the acid), and even producing chemicals for our lovely farms and the very electricity and components your computer uses. Now, let's see what heavily-pollutive activities the modern nations can do without.
Factories- Nope. Something has to produce the goods for billions of people.
Medicines- Nope. Some modern nations (like the U.S.) wouldn't be able to survive without these. And that's before you deal with people.
Power- Nope. Without this, there's no way we can produce hydrogen, solar panels, etc. Nuclear power is the only truly clean known power source that can be used on a wide basis... Luckily, meltdowns only happen if you do something stupid, like not maintain proper maintenance. Unluckily, an internet search can show you how often people have done something stupid and give you the information you need to extrapolate a percentage chance of it happening. The rest are either extremely pollutive in their operation or creation, lacking in providing enough power in most areas, or both.
Transportation- Hell, if we're doing away with this, might as well do away with power. Hydrogen vehicles have unknown short- and long-term affects on the atmosphere, and the rest are all unviable for their own reasons (electrical was actually replaced by gasoline, and using it requires more pollution from the area of power).
Food production- Well, hell, we need to feed all of these people we have. Maybe we could do away with this if we weren't so concerned about starving to death...
Now, those are the most pollutive areas each nation has. Now, have you noticed a certain thing they all have in common? That's right: People. Every one of those is related to maintaining or advancing modern life for the average person. As we adjust the population of the more advanced nations, we also adjust the amounts of pollution created by those nations, as each of the areas above adjusts as well.
So instead of killing off a few billion people, which is a pretty f*@king dumb thing to say at best. we need to stop burning so much F$@king fossil fuels, get the f*@k out of our cars, and start conserving some F*@king energy. pardon the invective, but it is necessary. |
Necessity and capacity to fill necessity are not the same thing. What do you suggest to replace fossil fuels? Solar panels are a no, as fossil fuels are a requirement of making them. Hydrogen is a no, as fossil fuels are a requirement for it. Windmills are a no, as they typically do not provide enough energy in most areas to make them worthwhile, and some studies suggest they have damaging effects on the atmosphere when used in mass. Pretty much all of the water options are out, as they either do not produce enough power for most areas or are extremely pollutive themselves. Geothermal is out due to risks involved with it (unless you like the idea of your power plant being destroyed by magma), and nuclear power produces radioactive material and tends to cause a lot more damage to the environment when people start getting stupid about it (which they inevitably do). Top it all off, we need to use fossil fuels in everything from farming and medicine to power generation and have yet to come up with truly viable replacements for them that don't have equivolent or higher costs.
Oh, and we kinda can't abandon motor vehicles. Many modern societies today rely on them to survive. It's what allows a company to get the best employee they can and have him live several miles away. Plus, without those vehicles, everything else simply falls apart. And I mean everything.
As for energy: Hah. Good luck. I've yet to see a solution in that area that doesn't end up using up more energy than we are currently using.
So, here's the problem: We don't have the technology to do it. That's pretty much our main issue. Science has gotten us this far, but it can't get us any farther at the moment. We have a problem, and so far the only solution that actually works on the short term requires us to kill off half of humanity. The only way at this point to truly reduce energy usage is to reduce the number of people to use it, and the only model I've seen that allows us to solve the pollution problem before it gets to be a major problem for humans is to reduce population to about 3 billion. Once we do that, some solutions that are not viable now become viable. Sometimes what needs to be done isn't what you want to be done, or even something you can stomach being done. Call it stupid all you want, but I have yet to see a better solution that is also viable.
Whatever information you've been fed up till now needs to be revised drastically. Beleive half of what you see, a quarter of what you read and none of what you hear.. |
I advise you to do the same thing. I've been looking for another answer than the one I have. I've been hoping there's another one. And I keep getting the same answer: We're not advanced enough yet, and we don't have enough information on the problem. Want to do a solution now? I provided you the only option we have that we know the full effects of.
Doing nothing is the worst thing we can do. As people we can only do so much to curtail energy usage. its our governments that need to really really think about things and start whipping industry into shape. |
In what way? Where can we reduce energy usage at? Maybe if we eliminate militaries... Well, yeah, that would eliminate an area of significant energy and resource usage... But I sleep better at night knowing the weapons are there.
An exponential increase eh? did you know that exponential increases needn't be massive, it all depends on the rate you apply to the situation. Like compounded interest that applies to savings accounts... |
Actually, I knew it when I stated it. The problem with exponential increases is that they do get massive. Not being able to stop it doesn't mean it's going to happen right now. It just means that we're spinning our wheels, but are still stuck in the same mudhole that we slid into to begin with.
Not averse to a little bit of sensationalism yourself are you? And there is always something that we can do, pump money into research programs and find answers. develope new ways of energy production. Improve the efficiency if photoelectric cells so that solar power can become a viable energy provider. stop being so bloody defeatist. |
Hey, guess what? You're saying the exact same thing I am. I'm not being defeatist: I'm saying we can't do anything right now. We need time to research, time to experiment, time to observe and collect data. We don't have the capacity to solve the problem right now and still keep our hands free of blood. That's a simple fact. Better yet, with time, we can better understand the problem and whether or not we have the capacity to solve it. As it stands now, we don't have the capacity at all. We can't improve efficiency, mainly because the most efficient power stations in terms of actual pollution and danger are gasoline power stations. Part of why they became preferred in cars to begin with.
repeating your earlier statements in a different way does not count as a different argument. We need to find the time to get to the solution and sitting on our fat arses is not going to help us. |
Ya see, here's the thing: We have people working on the problem. They have been for years. Guess what? All they've come up with is another short-term solution, and all they've proven is that we need more time to know the problem. Most of humanity can't do anything more than wait, since most of humanity isn't in the field of science (if they were, then the actual pollution would be massively higher, as science is another high-pollution aspect of humanity, which makes it ironic). All you and I can do is "sit around on our fat asses and wait" while the people studying the issue try to find viable solutions or make current solutions viable. My main argument over the whole thing is that we need to wait on an actual answer. Rushing forward without all of the information is what led us to consider whether or not this is a problem in the first place.
Again what issues of electric power? you have got to start clarifying your statements a little bit better. BTW i like the hydrogen powered cars idea too, cos the emmissions will be water vapour which will eventually have to come down as rain and replenish the original supply...As for water vapour being a great greenhouse gas. did you know that we have the tecnology to make rain happen by cloud seeding? that should bring that water vapour back down to earth. |
The issues with electrical power is that we need so much of it and most of it is produced through fossil fuels, with most of the solutions to that problem requiring even more fossil fuels than we are currently using in the area of power production. The irony is that most of the cures are worse than the disease.
Oh, and you might want to go back and reread what I stated. Your statement about it is exactly what, in the only modelling of it I have seen, leads to a rather horrible ice age and the exact same situation we're now trying to prevent.
Freaks of nature happen all the time, so i'm not going to read too much into the freezing effects in july in the middle ages. |
Um, what I was talking about wasn't freaks of nature. It was actually normal climate for awhile.
and yeas i do know ice ages have happened many times before, its why i brought up the topic in the first place. We did not thrive in the ice ages. Homo sapiens has only survived one ice age. our other less impressive 'ancestors' faced more. What the ice ages did do for mankind was to hit less adaptable species and push them further down the food chain leaving us on top. if thats thriving, then okay you're right. i think that ice ages slap everyone around, we just get up quicker. |
Actually, there've been several since the one you're talking about, although none of them was as bad as that. Most ice ages humanity has survived are micro-ice ages, which means they are pretty mild. Mild enough humans might not even notice it's happening back then. They just bundle up a bit more and go on. Humans are incredibly unobservant creatures at times.
about the poles...we'll see what we'll see when we see it.
Really though, to summarise this post and your prior post its simple a case of:
i say: we can and we must.......you say: we cant and we wont. thats a pretty negative and defeatist attitude you have there, sort it out. |
Well, technologically, we can't. If we can't do it, we definitely won't. But, at one time, we couldn't go to the moon and we didn't go to the moon until we could. "We can't and we won't" is simply where we are at now in our development on this issue. In time, we might be able to turn it into "we can and we will," but by that time we'll probably have done something stupid and gotten ourselves into a worse mess. You may consider it a sad attitude, but keep in mind gasoline was a temporary solution (we were supposed to have replaced it decades ago).