|That's the best prediction I can give you from data you presented.|
Actually, it's not. This is a problem in modeling. It's true that an exact solution can't be determined from the incomplete data given, however, with a few not too unreasonable assumptions the numerical odds can indeed be calculated.
When I was taking an Electrodynamics course many years ago, I was given the problem of calculating the electromagnetic fields around a power company worker standing 10 feet from a 2KV transmission line. I had absolutely no clue how to even begin the problem. The next class the professor went over the solution. The first step was to model the power company worker as a conducting sphere 6 feet in diameter. From there it was a simple problem in geometry to arrive at the solution. The moral of the story is, when faced with an unsolvable problem, simply change the problem to the most closely related problem that you can solve.
With this in mind, I’ll go even further out on the limb and be even more specific in my prediction.
Terrans win losing 4 to 5 ships, 87.5% of the time.
Terrans win losing 3 or 6 ships, 11.5% of the time.
Any other occurrence, approximately 1% of the time.
If the Iconians actually do win, then run out and buy a lottery ticket, because it must be your lucky day.