If you have $50 to spend, get the 8600GT/8600GTS.
If you have $130 to spend, get the 9600GT.
If you have $150 to spend, get the 8800GT.
If you have $200 to spend, get the 4850.
Those prices seem a little low. Ordering the parts new from Dell when I bought my new XPS, two 8800M GTX 512 MB cards and a PhysX processor set me back $1000 OVER the price of a 256MB NVIDIA card of a type I don't remember.
Obviously, desktop cards are cheaper, but I highly doubt you could get a new 8600 series card for $50 bucks, and DEFINITELY not an 8800 series for $150, my 8800s were $500 each...