If you're dealing so little damage that the extremely slow decay even has an effect, natural regeneration is going to overcome the puny excuse for damage you're doing anyway.
That doesn't make sense; .0125 /s is non-trivial decay, 1.25% a second. In the exercises this thread was running earlier, we were hypothesizing 12.5 DPS as the break-even point: if you're doing more than 12.5 DPS to a ship, you're pushing its shield mitigation up.
Most frigates (except LRM and flak),
most cruisers (save Heavy, obviously), and
all fighter squadrons do less than 12.5 DPS. So, if they engage each other one on one, neither vessel should be drifting above 15% shield mitigation.
I got my info from here:
https://forums.sinsofasolarempire.com/?forumid=404&aid=177682
I actually ran a test of this. 8v8, L1 Kols, no fighters, Team A engaging one-on-one, B engaging by focus fire. Result: 8-0 for focus fire, although team B almost lost a ship.
Umm. 8 L1 Kols? Those are capships, they do a
lot more than 12.5 DPS. I don't think they have a prayer of not maxing out shield mitigation on anything they shoot at.

Anyway, I appreciate that you're trying to test these theories in practice, rather than on paper, so I'll find an opportunity to confirm that two solitary Light Cobalt frigates will kill each other perfectly well, while both staying near 15% shield mitigation.
At the moment, I agree with Alacer's evidence that spread fire is good when dealing with small numbers of units, but more than a half-dozen units and it's time for focus-firing.